Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Monday's MLB games (2024)

  • Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Monday's MLB games (1)

    Todd Zola, FantasyJul 8, 2024, 08:05 PM


    • Writing on fantasy baseball game theory and player analysis since 1997
    • Winner of the 2013 Fantasy Sports Writer's Association Best Baseball Article

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

Great Scott

If Back to the Future's Doc Brown had a favorite baseball player, it would no doubt be New York Mets SP Christian Scott. After spending some time with Triple-A Syracuse, Scott is back in the bigs. The Mets had several off days in late June and early July, so they took advantage by sending Scott to the minors so he could continue to pitch, albeit with limited innings.

Even though he's 25-years-old, the Mets are managing Scott's innings this season. He pitched primarily in relief in college, so the club has been methodically building up his workload, with the intent of taking off the kid gloves for the 2025 season.

Scott spent most of 2024 with Double-A Binghamton where he threw 62 of his 87 2/3 total minor league innings last year. The right-hander opened this season with Triple-A Syracuse, posting a 3.2 ERA and .71 WHIP over his first five starts, fanning 36 with only six walks in those 25 1/3 frames.

Scott was then promoted in early May. He logged five starts, registering a 3.90 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, with a respectable 25 punchouts in 27 2/3 stanzas. Scott was sent down in late May.

Monday will be Scott's second start since being recalled. He struggled a bit in his first, yielding four earned runs in 5 2/3 innings to the Washington Nationals in a road affair. Scott rung up only two hitters while issuing two free passes.

With SP Kodai Senga progressing in his rehab with a late July return date, Scott's rotation spot may be in jeopardy. However, if he pitches well, perhaps the club will opt to deploy a six-man rotation for the final two months. This would benefit both Senga and Scott, and it's not like Jose Quintana, Luis Severino, Sean Manaea and David Peterson are so good they need to be on the hill every fifth day.

On Monday, Scott (6.6% rostered in ESPN leagues) is in a great spot to show he wants to stick in The Show. The Mets conclude a wraparound road set with the Pittsburgh Pirates. The hosts sport the third lowest wOBA and fifth highest strikeout rate with a righty on the hill.

What you may have missed on Sunday

  • Detroit Tigers OF Parker Meadows will probably be placed on the 10-day IL later today. He suffered a hamstring injury yesterday with manager A.J. Hinch sounding pessimistic after the game. Meadows was recalled last week and was off to a solid start, posting a .364/.417/.727 line in three games. He also stole a base yesterday before leaving the game. Matt Vierling will likely replace Meadows in center field tonight when the Tigers host the Cleveland Guardians.

  • After leaving Saturday's game early with a right quad issue, Seattle Mariners OF Julio Rodriguez didn't start yesterday's home affair with the Toronto Blue Jays, but he entered as a pinch-hitter in the bottom of the eighth inning. Rodriguez was hit by a pitch and was subsequently replaced by a pinch runner. Being able to pinch hit is encouraging, but not being trusted to run the bases in a 4-4 tie tempers enthusiasm a bit. Team managers in ESPN weekly leagues have a difficult decision. The Mariners are off today, and this fantasy period rolls in the three games after the All Star break. Starting or sitting Rodriguez depends on the quality of your replacement.

  • Minnesota Twins SS Carlos Correa had to exit yesterday's tilt in the first inning after taking a 96-mph fastball from Houston Astros starter Spencer Arrighetti off his hand. X-rays were negative, with Correa being diagnosed with a bruised right finger. His availability for tonight's road date with the Chicago White Sox is unclear.

  • Arizona Diamondbacks 2B Ketel Marte missed his second straight game yesterday as he's still experiencing lower back tightness. Marte is considered day-to-day. The Diamondbacks open an important home series tonight with the Atlanta Braves.

  • The Philadelphia Phillies could be back at full strength when they take the field tomorrow. The club has Monday off. Yesterday, manager Rob Thomson reported that OF Kyle Schwarber is slated to be activated on Tuesday and 1B Bryce Harper has a chance to return as well. Harper reportedly ran at close to 100% prior to Sunday's game, so there is optimism with today's off day that Harper will be back tomorrow.

Everything else you need to know for Monday

Beware, the Mets-Pirates tilt has an early 12:35 PM ET first pitch. It's the first of seven games on an abbreviated slate.

  • Keep in mind Week 16 is an extended period in standard ESPN fantasy leagues. Head-to-head scoring includes the three games immediately after the break while lineups lock through Sunday, July 21 in weekly leagues.

  • Monday's top-ranked streamer is a must pickup with Cincinnati Reds SP Andrew Abbott (22.5% rostered) taking the hill in the Great American Ballpark to face the Colorado Rockies. The Rockies have the sixth lowest wOBA and third highest strikeout rate when on the road facing lefties. Additionally, bats often struggle right after a long home stand in Coors Field since it takes a game or two to reacquaint to how the ball moves, and the Rockies spent that last week at home. Despite yielding only three earned runs over his prior two outings, Abbott fanned only four while walking 10 in those 11 1/3 innings. Even so, he's a no-brainer.

  • Cleveland Indians SP Gavin Williams (16.2% rostered) will be making his second start of the season after being sidelined with an elbow injury suffered while working with a weighted ball in the spring. He wasn't sharp in his first outing, giving up five earned runs on seven hits in four innings to the Chicago White Sox. Williams is in a good spot to get things going with a road date against the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers are averaging the eighth fewest runs per game over the last month, while fanning at a 24.1% clip, the ninth worst facing right-handers in this span.

  • Minnesota Twins SP Chris Paddack is slated to be activated from the 15-day IL and start Monday's road tilt with the White Sox. Paddack has been sidelined with right arm fatigue. His 5.29 ERA and 1.43 WHIP are misleading. Numbers of this ilk are usually not all bad luck, but a 4.04 xFIP and 4.06 SIERA suggest that Paddack has been snake bit. The culprits are a high .335 BABIP and low 70.0% left on base mark. The White Sox are averaging the fifth fewest runs per game and 12th worst strikeout rate over the last month with a right-hander toeing the rubber.

Betting Tip of the Day: The Arizona Diamondbacks don't strike out much facing left-handed pitching, but Atlanta Braves SP Chris Sale isn't an ordinary southpaw. Sale has at least eight strikeouts in each of his past three outings, and four of his past five. My model calls for 7.8 strikeouts tonight, so I'll take the over on 7.5 (+130).

It's not too late to start a free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday. Come and join the fun!

Starting pitcher rankings for Monday

Reliever report

To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

Hitting report

Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

Best Sub-50% rostered hitters for Monday

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

Worst Over-50% rostered hitters for Monday

THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Today

Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Monday's MLB games (2024)


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